As of today, Auquan’s modified SEIR model, created by HELP members Chandini and Vishal, has started contributing to the CDC’s ensemble predictions. It is in good company, with other contributing models created by teams at: MIT, John Hopkins, Imperial and Columbia.
The CDC describes the disease predictions as vital and that “forecasts of deaths will help inform public health decision-making by projecting the likely impact in coming weeks.”
Although this is a great achievement for our team, we still strongly believe in building on other people’s work rather than reinventing it. Accordingly the HELP team still plans to take a modular approach to disease modelling, using whichever model is best suited to the specific lockdown strategy.
You can see more details on the CDC website